8. Providing Science-Based Decision Support for Sustainability
All-Day Session (Pine Tree Room, North Wing, 2nd Floor)
* 4.5 credits are available for this session through APA AICP
* One presentation in this session has been approved for training contact hours (TCH) through the State of Maine Board of Licensure of Water System Operators. Please see below for details.
Co-Chairs:
Peter H. Taylor, Waterview Consulting
Bridie McGreavy, Dept. of Communication & Journalism, University of Maine
Effective delivery of science-based information is essential for any public- or private-sector decision-making process intended to advance sustainability. Regardless of the issue at hand, decision-makers and stakeholders need salient, credible, and legitimate science that enables them to make well-informed decisions that will lead to effective actions to increase sustainability. Often the necessary scientific knowledge either does not exist yet or is not available in a form that is readily accessible and usable by the people involved in decision-making. Many organizations face the challenge of addressing this gap through knowledge co-production, development of new decision-support tools, and other approaches. The common thread is the need to deliver science-based information to people who are not scientific experts but want and need the information to make decisions. In many cases, these efforts engage multiple fields of expertise and involve production of “boundary objects” such as interactive maps, user-friendly websites, and non-technical publications. This session will focus on interdisciplinary efforts to develop processes and tools that bring together science, policy, management, and stakeholders for better decision making.
Session Schedule
- 8:30AM – 8:55AM: A Map, a Stick and a Cartoon: Alternative approaches to information sharing around the causes and impacts of sea level rise, Susie Arnold, Jeremy Bell
- 9:00AM – 9:25AM: Communication and Collaboration within the Atlantic Salmon Governance Structure of Maine, Melissa. E. Flye (student)
- 9:30AM – 9:55AM: Methods for Aquatic Connectivity Barrier Prioritization: A Decision Support Tool for the Penobscot Watershed in Maine, Erik Martin, Benjamin Matthews
- 10:00AM – 10:25AM: Capital Plans, Meet Comprehensive Plans: Municipal use of a new DOT tool for risk-based asset management, Sam Merrill, Martha Sheils
- 1:30PM – 1:55PM: Developing a Management Strategy Evaluation Framework for the Gulf of Maine American Lobster Fishery, Mackenzie Mazur (student)
- 2:00PM – 2:25PM: What Does “Best Available Science” Mean in the FERC Hydropower Relicensing Process?, Sarah Vogel (student)
- 3:00PM – 3:25PM: Making Science Useful to Decision-makers in the Context of Tidal Power Development, Gabriella Marafino (student)
- 3:30PM – 3:55PM: How Much Risk Is too Much? Geographic and economic analysis to support local decisions about flood resilience in a Downeast Community, Tora Johnson, Andrew Howland (student). (0.5 TCH)
Session Presentations
Presenters are indicated in bold font.
Morning Session
A Map, a Stick and a Cartoon: Alternative approaches to information sharing around the causes and impacts of sea level rise
Susie Arnold1, Sam Belknap1, Jeremy Bell2, Teresa Crean3, Liz Hertz4, Eileen Johnson5
1 Island Institute, Rockland, ME
2 The Nature Conservancy, Brunswick, ME
3 University of Rhode Island Coastal Resources Center, Narragansett, RI
4 Blue Sky Planning Solutions, ME
5 Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME
The impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding are clear threats to coastal communities. However, the complex geophysical processes behind these impacts are often not well understood by the general population. Translating scientific information on a variety of climate change impacts to the non-scientific community has been the focus of increased research over recent years. Our presentation describes three approaches developed by the Island Institute, The Nature Conservancy, and the University of Rhode Island Coastal Resources Center that, while utilizing different strategies, all aim to translate complex scientific information into a form more easily digestible by the public. We examine the use of animation, interactive map viewers, and visual storytelling to highlight a few of the ways that boundary organizations can help motivate conversations and adaptive actions within communities wrestling with the challenges of sea level rise and other climate impacts. The presentation will kick-off with the Island Institute’s screening of the most recent O’Chang Studios cartoon that highlights the causes and impacts of SLR in Maine. O’Chang Studios animations have proven successful in raising awareness around other climate change related issues including ocean warming, ocean acidification, and invasive species. The Nature Conservancy will share their Coastal Risk Explorer tool that allows users to identify inundated roads, locations that are cut off from emergency services, approximate costs to upgrade the roads, as well as the social vulnerability of affected communities. Finally, we will share the story of the acclaimed Rhode Island Sea Level stick through photos and a do-it-yourself tutorial.
Communication and Collaboration within the Atlantic Salmon Governance Structure of Maine
Melissa. E. Flye (student)1, Carly. C Sponarski2, Joseph. D. Zydlewski2,3, Bridie McGreavy4
1 University of Maine, Ecology and Environmental Science, Orono, ME
2 University of Maine, Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology, Orono ME
3 U.S. Geological Survey, Maine Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Orono, ME
4 University of Maine Department of Communication and Journalism, Orono, ME
The Atlantic salmon population in Maine remains critically low despite extensive hatchery supplementation and habitat improvement efforts. In 2000 the Gulf of Maine Distinct Population Segment was listed as an endangered species with joint listing authority shared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Because, regulators and managers from Federal, State, and Penobscot Nation contexts operate with independent authority, recovery decisions depend upon effective communication and coordination. Using a mixed-methods approach we surveyed and interviewed members of the Atlantic Salmon Recovery Framework (ASRF), the governance structure responsible for Atlantic salmon management and recovery in Maine. The communication network analysis utilized survey results to better understand the flow of information and communication between members of ASRF and found that there is a relatively high network density for individual communication, but that these communications are poorly centralized and may be more compatible with some organizational structures than others. Communicative relationships formed distinct communities falling generally along organizational boundaries, indicating that individual communicative relationships are reflective of organizational affiliation rather than framework structure. Challenges reported by members fit generally into three categories, membership confusion, mismatches between framework and organizational structures, and poorly defined responsibilities. Despite these challenges, participants reported a commitment to maintaining a collaborative governance structure. Individuals reported long-standing relationships and a history of working together within and between organizations. This coupled with a high network density, show that communication pathways exist and may be built upon moving forward.
Methods for Aquatic Connectivity Barrier Prioritization: A Decision Support Tool for the Penobscot Watershed in Maine
Erik Martin, Benjamin Matthews
The Nature Conservancy, Brunswick, Maine
The Nature Conservancy’s efforts to assess barriers to the Aquatic Connectivity of Maine’s rivers and streams over the past 10 years has resulted in a comprehensive dataset of more than 20,000 road/stream crossings and dams across the State. Removing and/or replacing problem road/stream crossings provides the best leverage to creating healthy, abundant sportfish and forage fish populations that can survive extreme floods, drought events, and fishing pressure. To assisting stakeholders to allocate limited resources to the most beneficial barrier removals, we have developed a dynamic tool for multiple users to assess the most valuable barrier removal project. Our Decision Support Tool for the provides a heads-up prioritization scalable based on geographic extent, as well as providing a back end customizable analysis for diverse stakeholders that want to create tailored results based on specific restoration objectives. This presentation will walk through the enabling conditions that allowed us to create this tool, review the prioritization methods & metrics and showcase the results in the live version of the tool.
10:00AM – 10:25AM
Capital Plans, Meet Comprehensive Plans: Municipal use of a new DOT tool for risk-based asset management
Sam Merrill1, Martha Sheils2
1 GEI Consultants, Portland, Maine
2 New England Environmental Finance Center, University of Southern Maine, Portland
The Maine Department of Transportation (Maine DOT) developed a screening tool to meet their federal mandate to establish a process for risk-based transportation asset management planning. The “Transportation Risk Assessment for Project Planning and Delivery” (TRAPPD) initiative considers risk in terms of project delivery (i.e., on schedule, on budget) for infrastructure replacements and upgrades of state owned culverts and bridges. TRAPPD provides a numeric comparison using existing data that asset managers can view online and adjust expectations for asset condition and project delivery in real time. This capability represents a transition from proof-of-concept status to an automated, implemented, and transferable framework for risk-based decision-making by Maine DOT.
But can the TRAPPD tool also be used to inform municipal level planning and decision making about which culverts and bridges to replace, and when? To find out, the New England Environmental Finance Center conducted a pilot study in the Town of Scarborough, Maine to test the tool’s applicability to inform local asset replacement as laid out in the town’s comprehensive and capital improvement plans. This presentation will describe the Maine DOT tool and the results of the pilot project. The discussion will explore the future vision of how other Maine municipalities may benefit from using the tool, and the process to fit municipal data into the state DOT framework.
Afternoon Session
Developing a Management Strategy Evaluation Framework for the Gulf of Maine American Lobster Fishery
Mackenzie Mazur (student), Teresa Johnson
School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME
A Power Point presentation is not available for this talk. Please contact the speaker for additional information.
Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is an emerging approach used to inform decision-making in fisheries management. MSE includes choosing management objectives, identifying measures of performance, identifying alternative management strategies, and using simulations to evaluate these management strategies. However, MSE has not yet been developed for the valuable and rapidly changing Gulf of Maine (GOM) American lobster fishery. The goal of this research is to integrate quantitative fisheries modeling and social science to develop a MSE framework that will be used for evaluating alternative management strategies in a changing GOM and to provide critical management advice for the development of a resilient fishery. The American lobster population and fishery are changing rapidly, and it is unclear what will happen to the population and fishery in the future. Social science can provide new insight into the uncertainties of the fishery and population and goals of the lobstermen by integrating harvester knowledge into decision-making. In this study, we used semi-structured interviews, oral history interviews, and surveys to identify lobster harvesters’ management objectives and uncertainties and incorporated these into an individual-based lobster simulator. The simulator is then used to evaluate different management strategies. In this study, landings, biomass, and recruits from the different management strategies are compared to the management objectives identified by lobster harvesters. This study will provide a platform to answer “what-if” questions in the Maine lobster fishery management and inform the lobster industry and management agencies of possible consequences of changes in management strategies in a changing GOM.
What Does “Best Available Science” Mean in the FERC Hydropower Relicensing Process?
Sarah Vogel (student)1, Jessica Jansujwicz1,2, Joseph Zydlewski1,3
1 Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Conservation Biology, UMaine, Orono, Maine
2 Senator George J. Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions, UMaine, Orono, ME
3 U.S. Geological Survey, Maine Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Orono, ME
Over the next decade 25% of active hydropower projects nationwide will require relicensing by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Making informed decisions about hydropower operations and management during relicensing requires the production and use of science. Under existing law, agency regulators must use the best available science to make decisions that may affect local communities and ecosystems. Although embraced as the standard, this term is not well-defined. We sought to (1) enhance our understanding of how agency stakeholders define “best available science,” (2) identify the informational sources used in relicensing decisions, and (3) assess agency perceptions of the information and how it is used in relicensing decisions. We used dams located in the Kennebec and Penobscot River Watersheds in Maine as our study region. Official relicensing documents were collected (n=100), organized, and citations analyzed. The results demonstrate that FERC and licensee documents were largely comparable in citation composition, averaging 50 citations per document and employing 20% federal and 20% licensee informational sources. FERC and licensees cited peer-reviewed literature less than 20% of the time compared to 50% citation by federal agencies. An online questionnaire was implemented to further explore patterns of agency decision-making. Preliminary findings (n=55) indicate that federal agency stakeholders use peer-reviewed literature more frequently than state agencies. Further analysis will examine agency perceptions of information sources. An enhanced understanding of how agencies utilize, and value scientific information may help identify pathways for timely and better-informed relicensing decisions.
2:30PM – 3:00PM
Afternoon Break (Auditorium)
Making Science Useful to Decision-makers in the Context of Tidal Power Development
Gabriella Marafino (student)1, Jessica Jansujwicz2, Gayle Zydlewski1,3, Teresa Johnson1
1 School of Marine Sciences, UMaine, Orono, ME
2 Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology, UMaine, Orono, ME
3 Maine Sea Grant College, UMaine, Orono, ME
A Power Point presentation is not available for this talk. Please contact the speaker for additional information.
A major barrier to bridging the gap between scientific knowledge and decision-making is the lack of “usable” information. Data are often not presented in a form that fits the specific needs of diverse stakeholders, and it is challenging to integrate data from disparate sources and scales. In response, this research focuses on knowledge co-production and sharing to support decision-making for sustainable tidal power development in eastern Maine. A series of four stakeholder workshops are being organized to discuss existing information, knowledge gaps, and data integration strategies to generate a more complete understanding of the ecosystem at the proposed tidal power site. Key stakeholders are being engaged to tailor data integration and sharing in a way that fits the needs and capacities of decision-makers. The groups engaged in these workshops include state and federal regulators, the industry developer, and a tribal environmental department. Stakeholders involved in the first workshop identified that it would be useful to have a central repository for the ecosystem information, as well as to have the data represented spatially to serve as a decision-support tool. Subsequent workshops and interviews will be used to monitor how responsive the decision-support tool is to stakeholder concerns. Although marine renewable energy is relatively new, it is becoming increasingly important as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels. Applications of this case study could help improve decision-making in other locations seeking information about the feasibility of developing marine renewable energy.
Approved for 0.5 TCH
How Much Risk Is too Much? Geographic and economic analysis to support local decisions about flood resilience in a Downeast Community
Tora Johnson, Andrew Howland (student), David Cisneros
University of Maine at Machias, Machias, Maine
After studies showed significant, increasing flood risk to downtown Machias, the coastal Downeast town formed a committee to develop a plan to protect the commercial district and wastewater treatment facility. The committee’s work on flood barrier options was complicated by uncertainties about risk, limited data, and resistance to change among stakeholders. University of Maine at Machias faculty and students collaborated with the Machias Downtown Resilience Committee, the Washington County Council of Governments, and an engineering firm to provide decision support. To help the group weigh costs of alternative designs against risks, we gathered best available data on flood impacts and applied best practices for mapping and science communication to estimate potential impacts for a variety of flood scenarios. The approach involved co-production of knowledge, focus on local priorities and vulnerabilities, and scaling maps and economic information to local needs. We found inundation at the base flood elevation (BFE = 10.7 feet) could cause $700,000 in damage and take two months for recovery with relatively minor ecosystem impacts. The town had experienced two floods near BFE in recent years. With floods two or more feet above BFE–increasingly likely due to climate change–potential impacts rise dramatically: BFE plus two feet could cost $8 million with six months’ recovery. BFE plus 4 feet could cost $17 million with 11 months’ recovery and major impacts on shellfisheries. The community is now pursuing funds to engineer flood protection scaled to protect the town against a BFE plus four feet scenario.