Session 7 – ShoreUp Maine: Building Economic and Societal Resiliency to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
Presenters are indicated in bold type.
2 credits are available for this session through APA AICP
Afternoon Session – Washington Room (2nd floor)
Co-Chairs: Eileen Sylvan Johnson, Bowdoin College; Susie Arnold, Island Institute; Esperanza Stancioff, UMaine Cooperative Extension and Maine Sea Grant
From 1980-2016, the US experienced an average of 5.5 “billion-dollar” weather related disaster events. In the last five years, that average jumped to 10.6 events. 2017 set a new record of billion dollar events before the year was even over. NOAA has identified the Gulf of Maine as particularly vulnerable to long-term environmental change and impacts from storm events. The 144 island and coastal communities along Maine’s 3,000-mile coastline are mostly small (populations < 2,500), isolated, and highly dependent on fisheries. Storm damage is projected to increase dramatically, threatening Maine’s working waterfront and community infrastructure. In order to take action at the local level, communities have articulated a need for scientific information at appropriate scales, support from technical assistance providers, funding for infrastructural improvements, and examples of what has worked elsewhere. This session will consist of presentations focusing on case studies of success stories and innovative actions that can be applied to communities in Maine, including communications tools and/or remediation efforts, as well as highlighting the important and less well understood secondary economic impacts of storm events on critical working waterfront infrastructure.
1:30PM – 1:55PM
Community Resilience Informed by Science and Experience
Gayle Bowness
Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME
The Gulf of Maine occupies only a small corner of the global ocean, but it is a microcosm for changes and challenges. Home to deep basins, shallow banks, powerful tides, and famously variable weather, this ecosystem is incredibly dynamic. Our coastal communities are already seeing the impacts of these extreme conditions, the landscapes where saltwater meets human communities are experiencing change like never before. Ensuring the region’s resiliency to climate impacts, such as sea level rise, requires a scientifically informed and engaged public.
The Gulf of Maine Research Institute is building coastal community resiliency through immersive science experiences about sea level rise, designed for the general public. Program evaluation shows that participants build understanding of the science of sea level rise, personal and community impacts of flooding, and how data informs decisions that can build resiliency. Join us to discuss the development of this program, it’s challenges and successes, experience a sample, and explore how this resource may benefit your community.
2:00PM – 2:25PM
Planning for Resilience: A Practical Framework for Maine’s Coastal Communities to Evaluate Local Vulnerability and Prepare for Flood Hazards
Abbie Sherwin
Southern Maine Planning & Development Commission, Saco, ME
Coastal flooding is one of the most significant natural hazards impacting communities along Maine’s coastline. Increasing intensity and frequency of coastal storms, coupled with rising sea levels, will only exacerbate impacts of coastal flooding and threats to people, property, and the natural environment. To prepare for these intensifying threats, local decision-makers need information and tools that allow them to better understand risks and vulnerabilities posed by existing and potential future flood hazards and identify proactive steps to increase flood resilience.
The Maine Flood Resilience Checklist is a simple and practical self-assessment tool developed by the Maine Coastal Program (MCP) to assist coastal communities evaluate how well positioned they are to prepare for, respond to, and recover from flooding events and sea level rise. It provides an integrated and practical framework for examining local flood risk, assessing vulnerability of the natural, built, and social environments, and identifying specific opportunities to enhance community-wide flood resilience. The Checklist is designed to be completed through a community-based, facilitated discussion process in which key municipal officials and staff participate in a dialogue about local flood vulnerability, how well existing plans and policies address flood hazards, and ways to improve resilience.
Pilot tested by MCP, in partnership with Southern Maine Planning and Development Commission and the City of Saco, the Checklist can help communities improve their understanding of local flood impacts, engage diverse stakeholders in discussions about flood preparedness, and integrate resilience in existing plans, policies, and acitivities.
2:30PM – 3:00PM
Break
3:00PM – 3:25PM
Facing the Facts, Planning for Resilience
Andrew Dorr
Town Manager, Town of Vinalhaven, ME
The Town of Vinalhaven is an unbridged year-round island community with a population of approximately 1,200 people. As many of the country’s coastal communities face challenging realities investing in flood-threatened areas, we wanted to better understand our own risk. Our Main Street, along Carver’s Harbor, is home to nearly 200 lobster boats contributing nearly 10% of the state’s total lobster catch and over 30 businesses. We are planning for significant capital improvements as we draft our Downtown Master Plan and wanted to be informed about the risks of sea-level rise and increased flooding. The Town has received multiple grants to identify vulnerability and recommendations for resiliency in the area along Carver’s Harbor.
In 2016, the Maine Coastal Program Planning Grant gave us the ability to work with Ransom Engineering. We developed a model that provides us with the tool to better understand our risks into the future. In 2017, the Town received a technical assistance grant for the Design and Resiliency Team (DART) that provided our community with concepts of various resiliency projects we could implement. Ideas ranging from social sustainability to flood resiliency have given us additional information needed to complete our Downtown Master Plan. Learn how our community tackled this rising threat and what we will look to do going into the future to become more resilient.
3:30PM – 3:55PM
Synthesis of coastal flood hazards and uncertainty in sea level rise
Nathan Dill, P.E., Scott Hayward
Ransom Consulting. Inc., Portland, ME
Sea level along the Maine coast rises and falls predictably with the tides, but also less predictably with changes in weather and climate. Weather and climate present two sources of uncertainty that act on different time scales. Both must be addressed in order to understand present and future flood hazards. Uncertainty from weather acts on a relatively short time scale and is traditionally dealt with using statistical techniques that assign probabilities to a range of hazardous conditions. These techniques allows us to estimate the likelihood flooding will cause adverse impacts and quantify risks associated with coastal flooding. Uncertainty from climate change acts on a longer time scale and because of the large degree of uncertainty in long-term projections, hazards from sea level rise are commonly evaluated using a scenario based approach. A scenario based approach ensures the full range of possible future climates is considered in planning, but it does not inform decision makers about the likelihood of various scenarios. The scenario based approach is problematic if too much weight is placed on an unlikely scenario in planning efforts, or if too little weight is placed on a likely one. Our presentation explores how recent climate science, which provides estimates of the probabilities associated with future sea level rise projections, can be statistically incorporated into coastal flooding hazard analyses. In this way, present and future hazard information can be developed that considers the full range of sea level rise scenarios without requiring a subjective choice of scenario(s) to evaluate.