2026 Maine Sustainability & Water conference

Thursday, March 26, 2026
Augusta Civic Center
Augusta, Maine

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Session H — Informing Data-Driven Drought Decisions

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Afternoon Session

Two training contact hours (TCH) are available for this session from the Maine CDC Drinking Water Program. A sign-up sheet is available in the session room.

Session Co-Chairs:

  • Nick Stasulis, Supervisory Physical Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey
  • Josh Laufer, Cybersecurity and Resilience Coordinator, Maine CDC Drinking Water Program

In 24 of the past 25 years, Maine has experienced at least an “Abnormally Dry” condition as classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor. These recurring droughts have required coordinated responses across governmental and nongovernmental organizations and have impacted a wide range of sectors – from private well owners and agriculture to wildfire management and public health. This session invites all stakeholders affected by drought – government agencies, water resource professionals, researchers, data managers and citizens – to participate. Presentations will explore the complexity of defining drought, analysis of long-term trends in streamflow data and a look at snow hydrology. At the conclusion of the presentations, presenters and session co-chairs will also be available for a question-and-answer session.

Session Overview

Afternoon Session

Session Presentations

1:30PM – 2:00PM

The Complexity of Defining Drought: Navigating the Conceptual “Convergence of Evidence”

Sarah Jamison, Senior Service Hydrologist, National Weather Service

While “abnormally dry” conditions occur with relative frequency, severe and extreme drought events represent rare, high-impact climatic and hydrologic extremes. Drought classification is often hindered by the phenomenon’s inherent ambiguity and multifaceted impacts.

Characterizing these events is a complex undertaking managed by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM)—a collaborative endeavor between the National Weather Service (NWS), the USDA, and the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC). This presentation explores the “convergence of evidence” framework, a methodology that blends objective physical indicators with qualitative insights from local experts and community impact reports. Furthermore, we detail the data analysis and inter-agency coordination required to contextualize drought into authoritative categories. This presentation will pull back the curtain on the technical and collaborative workflows used to define the indefinable.

2:00PM – 2:30PM

Historical low-streamflow trends and drivers in Maine and the Northeast

Glenn Hodgkins, Research Hydrologist, USGS New England Water Science Center

Knowing about the frequency, duration, and severity of low streamflows in the past can help us put current and projected conditions into better perspective. What does the wealth of historical U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) daily streamflow data tell us about changes in low streamflows in Maine and the broader northeastern United States over time and what are the key drivers of low streamflows? Is precipitation, air temperature, or a combination of the two driving low streamflows? The presentation will summarize findings from recent and ongoing studies in the northeastern U.S. that apply a variety of statistical methods to answer these questions. Trends over the last 50-80 years in low-flow magnitudes and the number of low-flow days in Maine have been mixed (basin-specific changes toward both wetter and dryer conditions), with many insignificant trends. Summer precipitation has been the dominant driver of year-to-year low-streamflow variability while air temperature has had minimal effect.

2:30PM – 3:00PM

Afternoon Break (Auditorium)

3:00PM – 3:30PM

Snow hydrology data gleaned from Maine’s Cooperative Snow Survey

Jessica Meeks, Maine Geological Survey

The Maine Cooperative Snow Survey (MCSS), facilitated by 14 partner entities, has amassed snow data for over 100 years. Data on snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow density have been used to understand how the surface storage and temporal redistribution of precipitation affect the State’s annual water budget. In more recent decades, this data has informed national flood risk and drought models. Maine’s River Flow Advisory Commission is reliant on these models to predict, prepare for, and mitigate impacts from flooding. With climate change, the timing of winter snowmelt has become erratic. Rain-on-snow events, commonly associated with flooding, no longer happen just in late winter. Further, the timing of snow melt impacts aquifer recharge and groundwater availability throughout the spring and summer months. For example, early snowmelt on frozen ground promotes surface runoff and limited groundwater renewal. Circumstances like these can exacerbate pre-winter drought conditions, monitored by the State’s Drought Task Force. Thus, the snow hydrology data generated by the MCSS is vital for water recourses management at the State and local level, during both periods of drought and flooding.

3:30PM – 4:00PM

Q&A Panel focused on presentation topics and drought and data-driven decision making in Maine

Panelists: